Analysis EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair continued trading within the sideways channel on Tuesday, which has persisted for more than a month. Yesterday, the euro again declined significantly, but as we forecasted, it stayed within the sideways channel. In principle, if the price has been flat for a month, it is obvious that none of the major macroeconomic reports managed to change market sentiment. At present, the market does not understand on what basis it should keep buying the dollar if geopolitical tension is gradually easing and the Federal Reserve-tightening factor has already been worked through about five times. At the same time, the market is reluctant to buy the euro for reasons known only to itself. The result is a flat market. Yesterday the US released another inflation report that, in essence, changed nothing for either the dollar or the Fed. The fact that inflation in the US continues to accelerate is well known. At the December meeting, the Fed will raise the policy rate for the second time, and early next year — most likely for a third time. However, can we say that further dollar strength will be fully justified? No, because the European Central Bank will also raise rates in December, and very likely a fourth time next year.

Technically, the downtrend may have ended, but the price is still inside the 1.1115–1.1261 sideways channel. Therefore, the euro's prospects remain uncertain. The latest rebound from the channel's upper boundary triggered a drop to the lower boundary, but in recent days no new bounces off the channel edges have occurred.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no meaningful signals were generated on Tuesday. Recall that Ichimoku lines are weak in flat conditions. Yesterday the price pierced them but immediately moved to the 1.1154–1.1165 area. Therefore, opening short positions with a 10-pip target made little sense. The best approach now is to trade bounces off the sideways channel boundaries.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated November 3. On the weekly timeframe, it is clearly visible that non-commercial traders' net position remains bearish and has fallen significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been cutting euro exposure in favor of the US dollar over the past eight months. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, which makes it unlikely the dollar will deliver long-term gains.

We still do not see fundamental factors for further US-dollar strengthening. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, and the Fed's monetary stance surprised the dollar for the second time this year. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trendline), but the overall uptrend would remain relevant. However, in recent months the market has considered only positive factors for the dollar and ignored everything else.

The red and blue Ichimoku lines indicate a bear advantage. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group fell by 1,300 while shorts rose by 12,600. Accordingly, the net position decreased by another 13,900 contracts over the week.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD has the potential to form an uptrend, but for now it remains in a sideways channel. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the chances of a strong, sustained trend remain high. However, for the euro to rise, it must be bought. Over the past three months, the market has shown no willingness to buy the euro. As long as the price stays inside the flat, trading can be done on bounces off its boundaries.

For November 11 we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1006, 1.1115, 1.1154–1.1165, 1.1261–1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, as well as the Ichimoku Senkou Span B line (1.1190) and Kijun-sen (1.1200). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, so account for this when determining trade signals. Remember to move your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal proves false.

On Wednesday, no important events or macro releases are scheduled in the US or the EU, so traders will likely have little to react to during the day. The flat in the EUR/USD pair is likely to continue today.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider targets for short positions near 1.1115 if the price consolidates below the 1.1154–1.1165 area. On a bounce from the 1.1154–1.1165 area or from 1.1115, one can consider a target for long positions at 1.1261–1.1274.

Notes on the charts:

• Support/resistance price levels (thick red lines) are areas where a move may stop; they are not direct signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B — Ichimoku lines projected from the 4-hour timeframe onto the hourly chart — are strong levels.
• Extremum levels (thin red lines) are prior bounce points and do serve as signal sources.
• Yellow lines denote trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the charts (COT) shows the net position size for each trader category.