GBP/USD Analysis on the 5-Minute Timeframe

The GBP/USD currency pair moved higher on Monday, potentially as part of the upward trend that began in mid-October. It should be noted that the pound is trading in a relatively consistent and technically well-defined manner compared with the European currency. While the euro remains firmly within a sideways range, the pound has been in an upward trend for several weeks. This trend is also part of a broader sideways movement on the daily timeframe. Since the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily or weekly timeframe has not yet been reached, further growth in the pair is expected, with a target of 1.3650.

There were no significant events in either the United States or the United Kingdom on Monday, leaving traders with little reason to react to fundamental developments during the day. Nevertheless, volatility was not particularly low, and the market actively bought the pound. Geopolitical developments may have been the only reason for this market behavior, although it is difficult to conclude that geopolitics can still have a significant impact on currency pair movements nine months after the conflict in the Middle East began. However, no other apparent reasons were present.

Donald Trump is prepared to make certain concessions under pressure from the Democrats, who will gain full control of Congress in early January and actively block as many of the president's decisions and proposals as possible. In addition, impeachment proceedings against US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have begun. These developments are unfavorable for the US dollar.

From a technical perspective, the British pound has begun forming a downward trend after breaking below the trendline. However, it should be noted that the price has not managed to establish itself firmly below the Senkou Span B line. Therefore, the upward trend cannot yet be considered definitively invalidated.

On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were generated on Monday. At the very beginning of the European trading session, traders had an opportunity to open long positions. Just a few hours later, profits could have been taken near the Kijun-sen line. A rebound from this line provided an opportunity to open short positions, but these trades were closed at breakeven by the Stop Loss order. A new buy signal then provided an opportunity to open additional long positions, which could have been held overnight into Tuesday.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have maintained a predominantly bearish position throughout 2026. The net position remains negative despite the continuation of the long-term upward trend. Given developments in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for the US dollar has remained relatively strong in 2026. The war between the United States and Iran has formally been put on hold, but it could resume at any time. The Federal Reserve's changed monetary policy stance is also supporting the dollar, while the upward trendline has been broken. However, this breakout occurred within a sideways market, so the upward trend is not considered complete.

Over the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, as is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war is likely to continue in one form or another for a considerable period, while Trump's policies are aimed both directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains intact.

According to the latest COT report (dated November 3), the Non-commercial group opened 7,100 buy positions and closed 12,500 sell positions. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 19,600 over the week.

GBP/USD Analysis on the 1-Hour Timeframe

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to develop a technically consistent upward trend, which has not yet been fully invalidated. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the pair is moving toward the 1.3650 level, which represents the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. Fundamental and macroeconomic reasons for the British currency to appreciate are not necessary, as GBP/USD remains within sideways channels.

For November 10, the following important levels are identified: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, and 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3358) and Kijun-sen (1.3422) lines may also generate trading signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss order to breakeven once the price has moved 20 points in the favorable direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals.

No significant economic events or data releases are scheduled in the United Kingdom today. However, traders should pay close attention to the US inflation report. This indicator influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and could therefore trigger significant volatility.

Summary of the Analysis

Traders may consider the 1.3369–1.3377 level as a target for short positions if the price rebounds from the 1.3465–1.3480 level. A sustained move above the 1.3465–1.3480 level would make the 1.3588 level a potential target for long positions.

Explanations for the Illustrations

Support and resistance levels are shown as thick red lines. Price movements may end near these levels, but they are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are considered strong technical levels.

Extreme levels are shown as thin red lines. These mark levels from which the price has previously rebounded and serve as sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position held by each trader category.