While Bitcoin tries to get back on its feet, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, went against market sentiment and said Bitcoin is only at the start of a bull cycle, even though the price dropped to $72,695 on Tuesday, a three-month low. He estimates that 95% of institutional demand is still ahead, with the main inflows coming from investment funds, asset managers, and model portfolios at BlackRock and other large players. Back sees the current action more as a bottoming process than the end of the cycle, and says the rally could continue into next year. He added that Bitcoin remains an improved version of gold because its scarcity is mathematically guaranteed, and storing, transferring, and selling coins is far simpler.

Back's timing and arguments shifted over spring and summer. In April, he warned that institutional capital would come into Bitcoin more slowly than many expect. In May, he mentioned $1.5 million by spring 2028 when comparing Bitcoin's market cap to gold. In June, he said a range of 500K-1M by 2028 wouldn't require massive institutional flows and could be achieved by retail interest and ETF demand. He has now returned to the $1 million mark and reaffirmed a personal bet he had previously tied to the spring 2028 halving. Notably, this summer, the thesis relied on retail and existing ETF flows. Now, the stake is on an institutional wave that, in his view, has yet to arrive. To reach $1M, Bitcoin must rise nearly fourteenfold from current levels, so this is more a long-cycle wager than a trade.

Remember that the channel Back expects is currently working in the opposite direction. In the week of November 2–6, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion of outflows, $1.21 billion of which came from IBIT, and year-to-date flows remain negative at about $919 million. BlackRock's recommendation to hold 2–4% in Bitcoin has not translated into buying; managers are mostly inactive.

Note that Back is not the first to call a low. On November 3, Tom Lee told CNBC, "we're at the bottom" when Bitcoin traded near $80,500, and on Tuesday, he predicted a bull market lasting 24–36 months. Since then, the price has fallen nearly 10%, and the market has not responded to either call. Over the past 24 hours, short-term holders sent 47,300 BTC to exchanges at a loss; their cost basis of $75,691 remains above the current price.

I believe Back's long-term thesis is plausible, but in the coming weeks, the dollar and the Fed will decide the outcome, not him.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin technicals, buyers are now targeting a return to $75,000, which opens a direct path to $76,900 and then to $78,500. Clearing that level would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers to defend $72,800. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,100, with a further target near $69,400.

Regarding Ethereum technicals, consolidation above $2,093 opens a path to $2,149. The next upside target is $2,194. A break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers should appear near $2,020. A move below that level could send ETH toward $1,974, with a further target near $1,916.

What's on the chart:

• Red levels: support and resistance where the price is likely to pause or accelerate.
• Green: 50-day moving average.
• Blue: 100-day moving average.
• Light green: 200-day moving average.

Crosses or the price tests of these averages typically either stop a move or set a new market impulse.