Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Only a few macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Tuesday. Excluding all secondary reports, the only major release remaining is the US inflation report. It is believed that the market has already priced in the prospect of tighter Fed monetary policy several times since the summer. Therefore, even if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises significantly, a new downward trend in both currency pairs is not expected to begin. However, the US dollar could post a short-term gain. If inflation rises less than forecast or shows no acceleration at all, the US dollar could weaken.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The fundamental events worth noting include speeches by Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan, Michelle Bowman, and Roger Smith. Philip Lane, the European Central Bank's Chief Economist, is also scheduled to speak today, as is Huw Pill, the Bank of England's Chief Economist. However, these officials are not expected to provide traders with any fundamentally new information, as the positions of all three central banks are currently clear. All three central banks are expected to continue tightening monetary policy in the coming months, as there is simply no viable alternative. The initial rounds of key interest rate increases have not yet managed to bring inflation under control.

The geopolitical situation remains tense, although it has improved somewhat in recent weeks. The United States and Iran are not currently holding official negotiations, while Donald Trump remains uncertain about how to proceed with Iran following the Republicans' crushing defeat in the elections. Democrats have stated that they will demand an end to the war in the Middle East, a position with which Trump strongly disagrees. Nevertheless, continuing the war without the full support of Congress will be difficult for Trump. Iran is also open to returning to negotiations. Therefore, there is a possibility that the conflict could come to an end.

General Conclusions:

Market volatility could be high during the second trading day of the week, as the US inflation report is scheduled for release today. The euro remains within a sideways channel and is likely to stay there by the end of today's trading session. The British pound is poised for a downward correction. EUR/USD can be traded from the 1.1198–1.1218 level, while GBP/USD can be traded from the 1.3456–1.3476 level.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by the time required for a signal to form (a rebound from or a break through a level). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened near a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a sideways market, any currency pair may generate numerous false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD indicator signals only when market volatility is sufficient and a trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 points apart), they should be treated as a single support or resistance zone.
6. Once the price has moved 15 points in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to the breakeven level.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (zones) are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions or as potential sources of trading signals.

Red lines represent channels or trendlines that show the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – the histogram and signal line serve as supplementary indicators that can also be used as sources of trading signals.

Important speeches and economic reports (listed in the economic calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. Therefore, trading should be approached with extreme caution when such events take place. Alternatively, positions can be closed to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginner Forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and following sound money management principles are essential for long-term trading success.