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11.11.2026 09:47 AM
About 40k ETH Remain Until Bitmine Hits Its 5% Supply Target: What the Bitmine Report Tells the Market

Bitcoin and Ether fell yesterday after the US inflation print reinforced expectations of higher interest rates: core CPI rose 0.3% vs. a 0.2% forecast, and headline CPI jumped 0.4% vs. a 0.3% forecast. The market repriced the probability of a December hike, increasing pressure on risk assets — and against that backdrop, Bitmine Immersion Technologies released its annual report showing a loss that the recent Ether sell-off makes even deeper on paper.

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In the Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2026, the company reported a net loss of more than $6.3 billion, compared with a profit of $348.6 million a year earlier. Nearly $6.23 billion of that sum came from unrealized losses on the revaluation of digital assets: over the year, Ether fell roughly 44% from $4,390 to $2,466. At the end of August, Bitmine held 5,901,837 ETH worth $14.6 billion and 211 BTC worth $16.6 million. Compared with an earlier reporting cut, the worst was already behind them: nine months to May 31 showed a $9.1 billion loss, which narrowed to $6.3 billion by year-end as Ether recovered part of its decline. Today Ether trades near $2,050—about 17% below the August valuation used in the report—so another revaluation will work against the company next quarter.

The report's structure explains why Bitmine's results depend so heavily on a single asset's price. Assets are measured at fair value with changes recognized in profit, and the company warns that Ether price swings will continue to cause significant volatility in earnings, equity, and financial condition. Revenue for the year was $124.8 million, of which 97% came from staking and validation, and rewards are paid in Ether — so price declines hit revenue too. Over the year, the company sold 395.1 million shares through an at-market offering and raised $13.2 billion, and also repurchased 20.8 million shares at an average price of $17. That scheme benefits Ether by providing a steady buyer, while shareholders suffer dilution with each new issuance.

Purchasing continues. In Monday's release (Nov 9), Bitmine held 6,070,092 ETH, equal to 4.97% of supply, and over the past week the company bought 9,587 ETH for roughly $20.3 million. Since the end of August, the stash has risen by about 168k ETH, and Bitmine also disclosed purchases in mid-October (Oct 13). About 40k ETH remain until the 5% target — by my calculation, roughly four weeks at the current pace. Some 5,227,037 ETH are staked, over 86% of the reserve, and at full staking the expected annual yield would be $359 million vs. $309 million now.

Tom Lee's stance has changed little despite the price drop. On Nov. 3, he said he thought the market was at a bottom when Ether traded near $2,433; Ether is about 16% cheaper now, so the call hasn't played out yet. Earlier this week, Lee said the bull market could last 24–36 months and called Vitalik Buterin's Devcon-8 comments "seismic," quoting Buterin: "Ether is a store of value, Ether is money." Lee also reminded the market that purchases will stop once the company reaches the 5% target, and that moment matters more than the report because the market would lose its most regular buyer.

Bitcoin

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The nearest range runs between support at 73,500 and resistance at 73,900, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. A confident break above 73,900 opens the way to 74,600, where it is sensible to take profit and watch for a short on the pullback; condition: price above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator above zero. If price falls below 73,500 but the downside breakout isn't confirmed, and buyers quickly reclaim the level, buying is acceptable, with an initial target of 73,900 and a secondary target of 74,600.

Sell setups are mirrored: a confirmed close below 73,500 gives a short targeting 72,800, provided the 50-day MA is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If price rises to 73,900 but an upside breakout fails to hold, consider a short back to 73,500, then to 72,800.

Ether

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The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: the working range lies between support 2,047 and resistance 2,062. A break above 2,062 opens the way to 2,081, where it makes sense to take profit and watch for a short on the pullback; condition: price above the 50-day MA and the Awesome Oscillator above zero. If price falls below 2,047 but the downside breakout is not confirmed, and buyers quickly reclaim the level, buying is acceptable, targeting 2,062 first and then 2,081.

Selling is possible on a confirmed close below 2,047, targeting 2,025, provided the 50-day MA is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If price rises to 2,062 but an upside breakout fails to hold, consider shorting back to 2,047 and then to 2,025. Both indicators serve only as filters to weed out false moves — they are confirmation tools, not standalone reasons to enter early — and decisions are made only after real price confirmation of the specified levels.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
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